← Weatherlight Grand Archive ALC Regionals
Water Dawn of AshesTier 2
at Weatherlight Grand Archive ALC Regionals
decks
1
(1.3% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
7
4-3-0
overall winrate
57.1%
ELO-adjusted winrate
60.1%
avg ELO +5.1 per match
expected value
51.0%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
53.0%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↓ low
mean ELO 1161
· median 1161
· range 1161–1161
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
941
Q1 1161
Q3 1367
1685
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
100% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by lower-rated players — its raw winrate may understate how good it is.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Water Allies | 16.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.5% | +15.3 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 12.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.9% | -9.7 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 12.8% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 53.1% | +3.0 |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 11.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Allies | 11.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aggro | 3.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.1% | +14.5 |
| Fire Arcane | 3.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 46.1% | -6.3 |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 3.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Diana | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Neos | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Lorraine | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Arisanna | 1.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Astra Cleric | 1.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 1.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Erupting | 1.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Neos | 1.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.9% | +15.9 |
| Fire Tera Tamer | 1.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Cleric | 1.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Mage | 1.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Silvie | 1.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Neos | 1.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Tera Silvie | 1.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Tonoris | 1.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Ranger | 1.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Water Dawn of Ashes decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
